If Trump Wins ...🗳️
Bitcoin flirts with $70K as election odds shift. BTC looking at $100K? Polymarket vs Kalshi. Crypto got support on both sides? ETFs rake in billions as election approaches.
Hello, y'all. Enjoy long-form articles trusted by the best in Web3? Get them right in your inbox 👇
That $70,000 tease. 📈
Bitcoin's getting flirty with its all-time high.
How flirty?
Touched $69,450 earlier last day. *whistles*
That was yesterday.
Today? Markets decided to take a breather. Bitcoin's back at $67,000 and still bullish.
Remember March's glory days when we hit $73,700? Well, it just feels like we're heading back there.
But wait... why now?
Two words: Election season.
And not just any election - we're talking about the most crypto-focused presidential race ever.
"For the first time, crypto has become a mainstream political issue, engaging a broader audience," says David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX.
How mainstream? Let's break it down:
The Trump Effect
Leading with over 60% odds on Polymarket
Ahead in key swing states
National polls gap narrowing (just 1.8% behind Harris)
Pro-crypto stance gaining traction
And boy, does the market love it👇🏻
$2.2 billion pumped into crypto funds last week (highest since July)
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF alone grabbed $1 billion
Total ETF inflows touching $20 billion in just nine months
"With the focus on the US election results being front and center, the most positive outcome for crypto would be a Trump win along with a Republican sweep of House and Senate," says Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA.org.
Why? Because...
The Trump Promises
Firing SEC's Gensler "on day one"
Making US the "world capital of crypto"
Supporting Bitcoin mining
Backing DeFi projects
Creating a crypto advisory council
Reducing regulatory hurdles
And launched his own crypto project and a token
Read: Trump's WLF: Triumph or Fiasco?
Prediction markets?
Trump leads Harris by 29 percentage points on Polymarket
Similar trends on Kalshi (59% vs 42%)
Growing momentum in swing states
"If Trump's dominance continues and the Fed signals a more dovish stance, we could see renewed momentum for bitcoin in the weeks following these events," says Presto's Jung.
Some experts are dreaming big.
Block That Quote🎙️
Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman
"If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term."
The young crypto millionaire believes Trump's election would turn the US into a crypto powerhouse, leading to massive investment inflows.
"His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board."
And what about Trump's crypto evolution? Finman explains: "Trump was born around World War II, so it's understandable he didn't get Bitcoin at first... he's persuadable, open-minded and willing to adapt when presented with new information."
Who else agrees?
Eric Balchunas says …
“If Trump wins, we could see other coins as ETFs, in my opinion.”
Crypto analyst Crypto Rand believes …
"The most bullish aspect of the Trump administration is simply his non-hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies. This attitude alone is a game-changer and sets the US up to be a leader in the crypto space. Trump has proven several times to be an excellent businessman. Adapting to new trends, changing your mind and identifying upcoming world-changing industries is part of the required skillset."
Some are skeptical …
Unlock Web3 Insights by the Web3 Builders
A weekly podcast that takes you closer and deep into things that are shaping the world of crypto and Web3. Senior executives from 140+ enterprises trust them to keep them updated on what's going on in crypto.
Do tune in for depth, insight & numbers on how the internet is evolving.
Brought to you by Joel John, Saurabh Deshpande, Shlok Khemani and Siddharth.
In The Numbers 🔢
$2 billion vs $30 million
That's Polymarket crushing newcomer Kalshi in presidential prediction market volumes.
Let’s compare bets on US elections on both the platforms:
Bet Sizes and User Engagement
On Kalshi, the median bet size for Harris is larger than that for Trump, suggesting that Trump's odds are not artificially inflated by a few large bets.
On Polymarket, average bet sizes are around $210 for Trump and $113 for Harris, with only 27 users placing bets over $100,000 out of more than 220,000 total users.
This distribution indicates that while there are significant players in the market, they do not dominate the betting landscape as critics might suggest.
Trump was so happy with betting markets, even tried shouting out Polymarket at his rally ... but called it "Polypoll" instead.
Crypto Takes Sides
Who said crypto was apolitical?
Not anymore. You saw the numbers above.
The industry's heavyweights are picking sides, and boy, are they putting their money where their mouths are.
Let's see who's backing whom
Team Republicans
Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO) endorses:
David McCormick for Pennsylvania
John Deaton vs Elizabeth Warren
Why? "Better candidates on crypto"
Armstrong's take on Warren: "She's anti-freedom, thinks government should run all financial services (similar to China), and has done enormous harm to this country."
Remember when Coinbase was "apolitical" in 2020?
Times sure have changed. Now they're openly endorsing candidates through their "Stand With Crypto" project.
Team Democrats
Chris Larsen (Ripple co-founder) goes big:
$10 million in XRP to Harris' PAC
Previous $1M donation in August
Supporting Future Forward USA
Brad Garlinghouse keeps it diplomatic: "Ripple will continue to engage with both Democrats and Republicans."
The Surfer 🏄
Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun plans to airdrop tokens following a record trading volume of $1.1 billion last week and the launch of 31,600 tokens in a single day.
Bitcoin's hashrate reached a record high of 769.8 exahashes per second (EH/s) on October 21, reflecting increased network security despite declining mining profitability.
Indian crypto exchange CoinSwitch co-founder Ashish Singhal has accused WazirX of transferring $75 million in user funds to global exchanges Bybit and KuCoin following a cyberattack in July 2024 that compromised $230 million in assets.
ApeCoin's value doubled to over $1.5 for the first time since April, following the launch of ApeChain, a Layer 3 network that enables NFT minting, trading, and staking.
Fiat-to-crypto payment gateway Transak has reported a data breach affecting about 93,000 users. The platform attributed the breach to an employee's misuse of a company laptop that allowed hackers access to basic identity information.
If you want to make a splash with us, check out partnership opportunities 🤟
Our sponsorship storefront on Passionfroot 🖖
This is The Token Dispatch find all about us here 🙌
If you like us, if you don't like us .. either ways do tell us✌️
So long. OKAY? ✋
It’s great to see heavyweights like Coinbase getting involved in politics, but we need to be careful about making crypto too politicized. The technology should be neutral, not tied to any political party. Let’s hope this doesn’t alienate parts of the population that could otherwise support crypto’s growth.
It’s fascinating to see how deeply intertwined crypto and politics have become. I wonder if a Trump win would really lead to fewer regulations or if it’s just campaign talk. The market’s excitement seems based on speculative promises, but regulatory clarity is what crypto truly needs for long-term growth.