Loading for Uptober? ⏳
Crypto folks and history support October rally for Bitcoin. We look at the factors at play. Kamala Harris supports crypto? Tether's market cap closing in on $120B. Satoshi-era BTC miner moves coins.
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October? Always has been a total beast for Bitcoin.
Each year, October delivered the goods. Even last year, it rocketed 28% higher.
75% of crypto folks are pumped for October this year. They're talking $80,000.
And can’t blame them, history agrees.
Bitcoin has majorly outperformed nearly every asset class over the past year - VanEck says.
As of September 23, Bitcoin's price is approximately $63,652 - a 124% increase since September 2023.
Its market capitalisation stands at around $1.25 trillion, making up 56% of the total cryptocurrency market, a rise of 15% from the previous year.
That’s a good start considering we are in the month of September.
Here’s four things you should know about Bitcoin this week:
1/ Bitcoin - Supply crunch
Bitcoin balance on exchanges is at 12-month lows.
Long-term holders who sold at the March top are now re-accumulating.
Miners are hoarding Bitcoin for the first time in about a year.
A supply crunch incoming?
The smaller investors who were selling their Bitcoin are starting to disappear. This means there's less pressure to sell, which could drive the price up.
On Binance alone, there is over $15 billion worth of short liquidation above the current price.
These are folks who bet on Bitcoin's price going down. If Bitcoin starts climbing, they'll have to buy it back to cover their bets. That could push the price up even more.
The recent Fed rate cut announcement will help push fresh cash into the market over time, further supporting Bitcoin's price.
2/ Bitcoin price and technicals
Bitcoin has bounced back from a support level of $52,000 in September.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly timeframes indicates a bullish trend:
Currently above the key 50/100 mark.
This breakout signals potential for new all-time highs.
“Explosive move” by the end of 2024, targeting $85,000?
Veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could surge over 400% against gold by 2025.
Bitcoin's market cap has skyrocketed by 350,000% since its inception, outpacing gold.
Bank exec Geoff Kendrick predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, irrespective of the 2024 US presidential election outcome.
The macro look? The Federal Reserve implemented a 50-point rate cut.
Experts believe that Bitcoin could benefit from increased liquidity.
3/ Bitcoin ETFs
The SEC has approved BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options on Nasdaq.
The approval was granted on an "accelerated basis," allowing for quicker implementation of the options trading.
So, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Well, get ready for a rollercoaster ride. Options trading can amplify price swings, meaning Bitcoin could get even more volatile than it already is.
4/ Bitcoin - MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy has successfully completed a $1.01 billion convertible note offering.
The offering consists of 0.625% convertible senior notes due in 2028.
Investors can convert the notes into cash or MicroStrategy stock.
Approx. $997.4 million of the net proceeds will be dedicated to acquiring more BTC.
A portion of the proceeds will be allocated to redeem $500 million in senior secured notes, releasing collateral including 69,080 BTC.
Read: Should You Invest in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet? 🍔 🤔
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Block That Quote 🎙️
Bryan Johnson, the 47-year-old founder of the "Don't Die" anti-aging regimen
"Bitcoin fundamentally rejects inflation, and I fundamentally reject aging. We basically accept these slow boil deaths, and we both reject the slow boil death."
Johnson was speaking at Token2049, he believes that advancements in material science make aging a solvable problem, attracting tech developers to tackle these complex issues.
The intersection of cryptocurrency and anti-aging research is not new.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin donated $2.4 million to anti-aging research in 2018.
Agoric chief scientist Mark Miller, early Bitcoin investor Roger Ver, and former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan have shown interest in life-extension techniques.
The Longevity Science Foundation is exploring how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies can create alternative funding mechanisms for drug research.
Johnson claims to have reversed his biological age by five years and believes that future technological advancements could significantly impact aging research.
Kamala Harris supports crypto?
Kamala Harris has finally spoken.
She talked about crypto at a fundraiser in Manhattan:
“We will partner together to invest in America’s competitiveness, to invest in America’s future. We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors.”
This is the first time Harris has addressed crypto since becoming a frontrunner for the Democratic Party.
Whereas Her Republican rival, Donald Trump? He even has a family crypto project.
Read: Trump's WLF: Triumph or Fiasco? ⚠️
Reactions?
Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase's policy chief, called her statement "important and constructive."
Alexander Grieve from Paradigm described her remarks as "encouraging."
Jake Chervinsky, legal chief at Variant, expressed caution, stating that "consumer protection" could mean various things and called for more specific policy details.
How’s the poll going? Harris is leading in four out of six swing states according to Polymarket.
In The Numbers 🔢
$120 billion
That’s where Tether’s Market cap is aiming to hit.
And the stablecoin continues to solidify its position as the largest in the market.
Earlier this week, Tether minted $1 billion worth of USDT on the Ethereum blockchain, bringing its market cap to $119 billion.
In the past year, Tether has minted a total of $35 billion worth of USDT.
Circle's USDC, Tether's closest competitor, holds less than one-third of Tether’s market share.
As of Q2 2024, Tether is the 18th largest holder of US Treasuries, with over $97 billion in holdings.
User base? Tether has over 350 million users globally, contributing to its significant profitability—over $400 million in the last 30 days.
Satoshi-Era Bitcoin Miner Moves Coins First Time
Over 250 BTC from the "Satoshi era" were transferred on September 20, 2024.
The transactions occurred in five separate movements of 50 BTC each, totalling nearly $16 million.
As of now, there has been no movement of these bitcoins to crypto exchanges.
This transfer adds to previous instances of dormant bitcoins being moved, including transactions in July and December 2023.
In July 2023, a wallet dormant for 11 years transferred $30 million worth of bitcoin, while another moved 1,005 BTC in August.
The Surfer 🏄
The Moskowitz Law Firm has filed a class-action lawsuit against OpenSea in Florida federal court, alleging the NFT marketplace sold unregistered securities to customers. This legal action follows OpenSea's disclosure of receiving a Wells notice from the SEC in August.
William Koo Ichioka has been ordered to pay $36 million for defrauding investors in a crypto and forex scheme, with $31 million in restitution and a $5 million civil penalty. The US District Court's ruling follows charges from the CFTC and parallel actions by the SEC and US Attorney's Office.
Coinbase plans to launch its wrapped Bitcoin token, cbBTC, on the Solana blockchain, as announced by Country Director Hassan Ahmed at the Solana Breakpoint 2024 event. The token, currently valued at approximately $137 million, aims to provide liquidity for DeFi protocols and serve as collateral for various assets.
Hackers compromised the Supreme Court of India's YouTube channel on September 20, 2024, using it to promote XRP cryptocurrency scams. The court quickly took down the channel and later restored it after removing the unauthorised content.
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