Wait a bit more ⌛
ETF is almost here, and so are the predictions. Vitalik Buterin's investment advice. Anonymous wallets and their weird doings. Binance's positive year-end report. CoinsPaid hacked for 7.5 million.
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ETF fever is going ⬆️
The dates are very near.
ARK expects the approval on Jan 10 and so does BlackRock.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, anticipates the SEC will approve its spot Bitcoin ETF application next Wednesday.
The company also plans to cut about 3% of its staff, approximately 600 jobs.
Company Performance
BlackRock's shares rebounded in 2023, up 6% after a 21% drop in 2022.
The firm saw $187 billion in inflows into its exchange-traded fund business in 2023.
It ended Q3 of 2023 with $9 trillion in assets under management (AUM), down from a peak of over $10 trillion in 2022.
The Final Filings
Major U.S. exchanges have filed final Bitcoin ETF application filings.
Amended 19b-4 filings have been submitted by entities like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity.
These filings address feedback from the U.S. SEC.
For the ETFs to launch, the SEC needs to approve both the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 filings.
On Friday all of them filed their 19B-4 forms👇🏻
"We've been hearing that the SEC has been working with the issuers on their 19B-4s," Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said in an interview with Rug Radio. "They're going back and forth on drafts. So that's why we've seen S-1 get updated. But the 19B-4s edits have gone right to the SEC. They haven't been refiled."
"So when we see those refiled, we'll know that the SEC has signed off on them as being final."
Adoption Goes Up
The number of in-person merchants accepting Bitcoin has almost tripled in the past year.
Over 6,000 vendors worldwide now accept Bitcoin - up from only 2,200 vendors at the end of 2022.
Many vendors are located in Latin America.
Significant presence in Europe and the United States.
The Philippines has hundreds of vendors, but East Asia, especially China, shows minimal adoption due to cryptocurrency bans.
How's BTC?
BTC Price: Approximately $43,983.
Market Sentiment: Focus on the $44,000 mark as Bitcoin enters its first weekly close of 2024.
Some traders expect a temporary downturn in BTC price in a "sell the news" event following the ETF decision.
Analyst Alex Becker argues that ETF approval won't lead to a "sell the news" event.
Others foresee a potential surge, challenging key psychological levels.
Arthur Hayes Predicts
Hayes expects a 20%-30% plunge in Bitcoin's value in the coming months, potentially as much as 40% if BTC reaches $60,000-$70,000.
Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program (RRP): The RRP balance is declining rapidly, with Hayes expecting it to hit its historical average of $200 billion by March.
Expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): Set to expire on March 12, the BTFP has been crucial in stabilizing last year's regional banking crisis.
Hayes mentions a potential "liquidity rug pull" event in March, akin to last year's banking crisis.
CryptoQuant and K33 Research also forecast a correction for crypto markets, with CryptoQuant suggesting BTC could drop to $32,000 following a spot-based ETF approval.
Read this: Bitcoin's Peekaboo 🙄
Better Markets' Position
Better Markets, a non-partisan nonprofit advocating for stricter financial regulations, has submitted a letter to the SEC.
The letter urges the SEC to deny applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Dennis M. Kelleher, CEO and co-founder of Better Markets, describes crypto as "little more than a socially worthless gambling chip."
TTD Advice 🫵🏻
Vitalik Buterin provides a practical roadmap for both novice and experienced investors in the crypto industry.
Diversification in Investments: particularly relevant given the emergence of new investment opportunities in the digital age.
Importance of Savings: Stresses saving enough to cover multiple years of expenses. Why not, given the unpredictability of job markets?
Advocating for a 'Boring' Portfolio: Encourages steady, reliable investments for long-term gains. Contrasts with the allure of high-stakes, sensational investing common in the crypto industry.
Caution Against Excessive Leverage: Advises against using over 2x leverage in investments.
The Reactions👇🏻
TTD Someone 👀
An anonymous wallet has inscribed encrypted data onto the Bitcoin blockchain using 1.5 BTC, approximately valued at $66,000.
The purpose? nobody knows.
Details of the Inscription
Transaction Process: The data inscription involved 332 transactions.
Size of Data: The encrypted data amounts to nearly 9 megabytes.
Transaction Costs: The most expensive transactions cost thousands of dollars, with most averaging around $200.
No one has yet claimed ownership or deciphered the encrypted data.
26 BTC Transfer to Satoshi Nakamoto's Wallet
In a parallel mystery, an anonymous wallet sent $1.2 million to the original Bitcoin wallet (owned by the legendary Satoshi Nakamoto).
The transaction was made to the first wallet ever created on the Bitcoin network, on January 6.
Why?
The majority of the funds came from a wallet labeled as belonging to Binance.
Somebody wants an identity reveal?👇🏻
Since funds from Satoshi's wallets have been dormant since 2010, this money is likely irretrievable.
Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin Holdings
Estimates suggest Nakamoto owns at least 1.1 million BTC.
Current Value: Worth about $47 billion, though this is only a theoretical valuation.
Current Status of the Genesis Wallet
Original Balance: Contained 50 bitcoin from its creation.
Late 2023 Balance: Increased to 72 bitcoin.
Post-Transaction Balance: Now holds 99.67 bitcoin, worth approximately $4.3 million.
Where’s ETF? 🚨
According to Bloomberg analysts, the odds of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the U.S. have risen to over 90%. However, betting platform Polymarket has trimmed the odds to 85%👇🏻
TTD Binance 🔶
Binance's got a positive in its year-end report.
30% increase in users: 170 million customers.
18% more trades with 39% more users compared to 2022.
Key Developments
Binance Pay: Onboarded 3,500 new merchants and partners.
Earn Program: The user base grew by 35%.
Proof-of-Reserves System: Expanded to 31 tokens, up from nine the previous year.
Web3 Wallet Launch: The wallet is available through the Binance mobile app.
Compliance Investment: Increased from $158 million to $213 million, a 35% rise.
Regulatory and Legal Updates: Acknowledged past conduct and reached settlements costing billions of dollars. Still facing an ongoing case with the US SEC.
Binance US New Hire
Lesley O'Neill joins Binance US as the Chief Compliance Officer.
Background: O'Neill previously worked at Prove, EY, Milbank, and Bloomberg.
Role Focus: She will lead initiatives on sanctions, anti-money laundering, and know-your-customer (KYC) policies.
TTD Hack 🦹🏻
Crypto payment gateway CoinsPaid has faced its second major security breach in six months.
Breach Details: Second security breach in six months, involving unauthorised transactions of nearly $7.5 million.
Assets Stolen: Involving Tether (USDT), Ether (ETH), USD Coin (USDC), and CoinsPaid's native token CPD.
Total Loss: Initially, $6.1 million in digital assets, with additional BNB transactions increasing the total to close to $7.5 million.
Attacker's Actions
Swapped around 97 million CPD tokens for ETH, worth approximately $368,000.
Transferred funds to externally owned accounts (EOAs) and crypto exchanges MEXC, WhiteBit, and ChangeNOW.
CPD token value dropped by 39.5% in 24 hours following the incident.
CoinsPaid's Response
Claims to have processed over 19 billion euros in crypto transactions.
In July 2023, over $37 million was stolen in a similar breach.
Hackers used a fake job interview to trick an employee into downloading malicious code.
Previous attack attributed to the North Korean state-backed Lazarus Group.
A little context on that👇🏻
TTD Surfer 🏄
The special economic zone of Próspera in Honduras has officially recognized Bitcoin as a unit of account.
OpenAI and Microsoft are facing another copyright infringement lawsuit, this time from nonfiction authors Nicholas Basbanes and Nicholas Gage.
Digital Currency Group (DCG) has announced that it has repaid all of its short-term loans to its bankrupt subsidiary, Genesis.
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