Who Will Win the Crypto Game? 🏹
Harris vows crypto protections. Trump extends lead on Polymarket - is crypto swaying votes? Prediction markets explode 565% in Q3 - election fever or crystal ball? Obama drops truth bombs?
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October is here, and Bitcoin's back to strutting its stuff. It's hitting $66K.
While we're definitely celebrating, we're not really shocked.
Why? We’ve always known the potential of crypto to reach the stars, the charm of October and the power of hodling.
Read: Bulls, Bears and Bitcoin
Guess who’s taken note of all that? Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris has gone full crypto.
Maybe not as much as Trump has. She doesn’t have a crypto project yet.
But, this time it’s not just a passing mention about the importance of AI.
Then what is it? She's rolled out a pro-crypto stance in her "Kamala Harris Will Deliver for Black Men" platform.
She's promising a "regulatory framework" to protect crypto investors and owners.
This marks her most explicit pro-crypto position to date, a sharp departure from her previous silence on the issue.
Why the sudden change of heart?
In The Numbers 🔢
20%
That's the percentage of Black Americans who have invested in or currently hold crypto assets, according to the Harris campaign.
Why it matters
This explains why Harris is suddenly so interested in crypto
It shows the growing importance of crypto in minority communities
It could be a crucial factor in the 2024 election
The move targets black male voters
A crucial demographic for Democrats.
A good chunk of Black Americans have invested in or currently hold crypto assets.
And guess what? Harris is underperforming with the Black male electorate.
Historically, Black voter support for Democrats has been strong, peaking at 95% during Obama's 2008 campaign.
Right now, it’s come down to 78% according to a New York Times survey.
And that’s why Harris is ramping up efforts to connect with Black men and launching an "Opportunity Agenda" aimed at economic empowerment which includes crypto.
The document said
Harris “appreciates the ways in which new technologies can broaden access to banking and financial services,” and that she will “make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework so that Black men and others who participate in this market are protected.”
But, not everyone’s convinced:
Trump v Harris (crypto version)
Harris is also trying to close the gap with Trump, who's been wooing crypto folks for months.
World Liberty Financial, Trump's DeFi project, is launching its token sale on October 15
The sale is open to accredited investors who made it through the whitelist process
Trump's promising to make America "the crypto capital of the world"
And it’s working:
Galaxy Research's latest report highlights key differences in crypto policies between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Harris's Stance
More crypto-friendly than Biden, but less so than Trump
Promises to improve regulatory environment for US crypto firms
Unfavourable on taxes, Bitcoin mining and self-custody
Trump's Position
Aims to make America "the crypto capital of the world"
Pledges to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler
Supports Bitcoin mining and self-custody rights
What’s common?
Both remain hawkish on crypto sanctions
73% of crypto owners say a candidate's crypto policy will influence their vote
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Block That Quote 🎙️
Former President Barack Obama
"Part of it makes me think – and I'm speaking to men directly – part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren't feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you're coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that."
Obama said this during a surprise campaign stop in Pittsburgh. Calling out the elephant in the room – gender bias in presidential politics.
He highlighted that Harris’ campaign had struggled to create “the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighbourhoods and communities as we saw when I was running.”
What’s up in Polymarket?
A shift from September when Harris was leading.
Trump is way ahead:
If you are planning to bet too: Jim Cramer predicts a Harris win (crypto traders, you know what to do with that info 😉)
Thanks to all this election drama, Q3 saw prediction markets go absolutely bonkers - CoinGecko.
565.4% growth in betting volume
Q3 total: $3.1 billion (up from $463.3 million in Q2)
Polymarket Dominance:
99% market share
713% growth in betting volume
848% increase in transactions
Polymarket's TVL: Over $172 million
The report says:
“Some $1.7 billion of bets have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the start of 2024, accounting for ~46% of Polymarket’s yearly volume.”
What does Elon Musk think? He says these markets could be more accurate than traditional polls:
The Surfer 🏄
Crypto wallets linked to YouTube star MrBeast reportedly generated around $13 million by trading tokens associated with controversial projects, often perceived as pump-and-dump schemes. One wallet made significant profits by investing in tokens like Polkamon and SuperVerse.
Tether is exploring opportunities in commodities trading and traditional finance (TradFi), emphasising that these ventures will not affect the company’s stablecoin reserves. The move comes after a record $5.2 billion profit in the first half of 2024 and includes discussions on US dollar lending to commodity traders to address credit gaps in the sector.
TD Bank has been fined over $3 billion for failing to report suspicious cryptocurrency transactions linked to an unnamed customer group, per a FinCEN investigation. The bank allegedly processed over $1 billion in transactions, primarily involving a UK-based crypto exchange and a Colombian financial institution, without adequate monitoring or controls.
Bitcoin mining profitability declined in September, according to a Jefferies report, as the network hashrate increased by 11% while Bitcoin prices rose only 5%. The report warns that October may present even greater challenges for miners, with average daily revenue per exahash falling by 2.6% amid rising competition.
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So long. OKAY? ✋
I’m intrigued by the idea that crypto policies could sway an election, but it’s also a bit concerning. Are we getting too focused on speculative financial assets at the expense of broader economic issues? It’s great to see more attention on economic empowerment for Black men, but hopefully the discussion also shifts toward other long-term solutions beyond the volatility of crypto markets.
It's fascinating to see crypto becoming a central issue in the election. Trump framing the U.S. as the 'crypto capital of the world' feels like a reflection of how much this space has matured. What’s even more interesting is the idea that prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming as important as traditional polls. Could we see crypto actually playing a decisive role in political forecasting from now on?