Financial Advisers Remain Divided on Bitcoin ETF Approval in 2024

• Only 39% of U.S. financial advisers believe a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2024, according to a Bitwise survey.
• 88% of the advisers are eager to invest in Bitcoin and prefer to do so “after a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the U.S.”
• Grayscale’s successful appeal of its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal rejection in 2023 has led to increasing optimism.

As the crypto community eagerly awaits the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, a recent survey by ETF issuer Bitwise reveals a divide among financial experts regarding the timing of this long-anticipated milestone.

A Pessimistic Perspective

Bitwise’s survey, published on January 4th, polled financial advisers across the United States, including registered investment advisers (RIAs), financial planners, institutional investors, and wirehouse representatives. When asked when they expect a spot Bitcoin ETF to gain approval, only 39% of respondents believe it will happen in 2024.

This contrasts with some experts who anticipate ETF approval as soon as January 10th.

However, despite this skepticism, the majority of surveyed advisers do believe that a Bitcoin ETF will eventually receive approval. Twenty-two percent foresee approval in 2025, while 24% expect it to happen “after 2025.” Only 12% answered “never” to this question.

The survey also revealed that many advisers are eager to incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios, even if they anticipate a delay in ETF approval. Some expressed a desire to buy Bitcoin for themselves or their clients for the first time.

Interestingly, when these particular advisers were asked whether they would prefer to buy Bitcoin before or after an ETF approval, a significant 88% favored purchasing “after a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the U.S.”

Contrasting Predictions

In November, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has reaffirmed the company’s belief that there is a 90% chance of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by January 10.

Traders on the decentralised prediction platform Polymarket believe there is an 89% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by January 15.

For years, ETF issuers have faced challenges in gaining approval from the U.S. SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, in June 2023, Grayscale successfully appealed the agency’s rejection of its spot Bitcoin ETF proposal.

This victory prompted the SEC to reevaluate the application, leading to growing optimism that an ETF approval is imminent. The SEC faces a deadline of January 10th to approve or reject the ARK 21 Shares spot Bitcoin ETF, with other fund deadlines set for March.