- Standard Chartered predicts spot Bitcoin ETFs could bring in $50-100 billion in 2024, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price to $200,000 by 2025.
- The bank compares Bitcoin ETFs to the introduction of gold ETFs in 2004, estimating potential inflows based on Bitcoin’s market cap and relative size.
- Spot Ether ETFs are expected to gain SEC approval in Q2 2024, with Ether likely allowed despite regulatory differences.
Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that if approved, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could bring in between $50 billion and $100 billion in inflows in 2024.
Drawing parallels with the introduction of gold ETFs, the bank compared the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs to the launch of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in 2004, which revolutionised access to the gold market.
Given Bitcoin’s current market cap of $0.86 trillion and considering relative market caps, Standard Chartered estimates inflows ranging from $34 billion to a high of $130 billion. Several Bitcoin ETF applicants, including VanEck, Galaxy, and Bitwise, anticipate substantial inflows, with Bitwise projecting a market size of around $72 billion within five years.
Standard Chartered sees potential spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as a “watershed moment” for institutional investor participation in Bitcoin and expects significant price gains. Comparing the price dynamics of gold and silver ETFs, the bank anticipates Bitcoin’s price could rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025. It expects these gains to materialize over a shorter period, thanks to the faster development of the Bitcoin ETF market.
The bank’s end-2024 projection for Bitcoin is $100,000, and it believes that if ETF-related inflows align with their expectations, an end-2025 price closer to $200,000 is achievable.
In addition, Standard Chartered Bank anticipates approval for spot Ether ETFs in the second quarter of 2024, distinguishing their regulatory treatment from Bitcoin ETFs.
The bank notes that while SEC Chair Gary Gensler has indicated that everything other than Bitcoin could be considered a security, Ether is ultimately likely to be allowed for spot ETFs as it was not among the tokens alleged to be securities in previous SEC actions.